The price of lithium has tumbled more than 80 per cent in the past year to $13,200 per tonne, its lowest level since 2020, after excessive levels of supply hit the market, according to data group Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Although lithium prices remain in free fall for the time-being, the energy transition away from fossil fuels and present lack of suitable alternatives suggest that demand for lithium-powered energy sources will continue rising over the next decade as governments attempt to meet clean energy goals.
“Lithium balances are sensitive to small shifts in demand or supply growth, so the market is susceptible to heightened price volatility,” said analysts at Citi. “A supply reaction to the current lower price environment could prime the market for a rebound in the second half of 2024.” Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.
As Citibank termed it, a “perfect storm” has hit the lithium market, caused by destocking, deceleration in EV demand, and continued supply growth. The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, and as their stockpiles increased, this surplus placed downward pressure on prices.
Though in the near term, while lower prices benefit consumers who were previously unable to purchase lithium-based technologies, including some green energy industries, suppliers will find it less profitable to invest in long-term efforts to increase production, leading to further market misalignments down the line.
Oversupply and softening demand leading to falling prices for the critical mineral raise concerns about the potential impact on various industries, particularly those reliant on lithium-ion batteries, such as electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage, and consumer electronics.
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